| 청구기호 |
003 T143t |
| 판사항 |
2nd ed., Random trade pbk. ed.
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| 형태사항 |
xxxiii, 444 p. : ill. ; 21 cm.
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| 언어 |
English |
| 일반주기 |
"Originally published in hardcover and in slightly different form in the United States ... by Random House in 2007."-T.p. verso.
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| 서지주기 |
Includes bibliographical references (p. [400]-429) and index.
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| 내용 |
Prologue -- Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans -- Postscript essay: on robustness an fragility, deeper philosophical and empirical reflections. Learning from mother nature, the oldest and the wisest ; Why I do all this walking, or how systems become fragile ; Margaritas ante porcos ; Asperger and the ontological black swan ; (Perhaps) the most useful problem in the history of modern philosophy ; Fourth quadrant, the solution to that most useful of problems ; What to do with the fourth quadrant ; Ten principles for a black-swan-robust society ; Amor fati: how to become indestructible.
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| 주제 |
Uncertainty (Information theory) --Social aspects.
Forecasting.
BLACK
SWAN
IMPACT
HIGHLY
IMPROBABLE
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| LCCN |
2010292618
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| ISBN |
081297381X
, 9780812973815 (pbk.)
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| QR CODE |
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